Thoughts on violence in Russia? How do you think the VDR could be lowered? Feel free to comment below.

Current VDR: 16.7 Life Expectancy: 67

Average VDR over nation’s recent history (1900-2008): 208.1

Average VDR over current life expectancy: 238.7

Lifetime Chance Of Dying By Someone Else’s Hands (2008 rate): 1/89

Lifetime Chance Of Dying By Someone Else’s Hands (Duration of Life Expectancy): 1/6

Average Military Death Rate over Nation’s Recent History: 187.9

Average Homicide/Execution Rate over Nation’s Recent History: 20.2

Link To Spreadsheet

Category Of VDR# of Years-% of Nation’s Recent History-Year of Last Occurrence

OBLITERATION11 (10.2%) 1945

DECIMATION4 (3.7%) 1938

EXTREME UPHEAVAL2 (1.8%) 1940

EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF1 (.9%) 1939

WATCH YOUR BACK7 (6.5%) 2004

HARSH LIVING30 (27.7%) 2006

SOMEWHAT STABLE7 (6.5%) 2008

SOME CONCERN13 (12%) 1991

LOW LIKELIHOOD33 (30.5%) 1987

PEACEFUL0

UTOPIA0

homicide and military death rates by year Russian

Russian violent death history…. yowwwwchhh! If there’s anything they know in Russia, it’s that life is short and brutal. Allot of Westerners get thrown off by the unique way of the “Russian Mind”, in things both political and interpersonal. In a nut shell it is this: There is nothing you can threaten a Russian with that they haven’t already been through. If it were any other historical nation-state, it probably would have dissolved by now (think Carthage or the Byzantine Empire); but the shear vastness of their lands has prevented this. No one, not even today, could possibly govern the territory of Russia except for Russians themselves… rational and irrational minds alike have tried, and they all have failed.

For the time being I am only focusing on the recent history of Russia, I will tackle earlier periods as soon as I am able to mock up some reasonable estimates.

To emphasize the butcherous levels of Russia’s recent past, look at this comparison between the violent death histories of Russia and the United States. The US is that blue line that barely blips up during the two World Wars.

usa soviet total world war dead

I am not pointing this out to make light of the United States contribution to either of those terrible wars, but merely to reiterate the fact that there is a huge difference between a society in which 1/20 people has had a loved one violently killed, and one in which virtually every single person has experienced such a thing. It effects the entire tenor and metal outlook of that society for a very, very, long time.

Notice that my worst category of violence “Obliteration” doesn’t even remotely do the Russian VDR history justice. The rate of 400/100,000 is not just broken through, it is lapped 10 times over in the time of WW2, and to a slightly less extent in the first WW and the revolution after it. I specifically gave that category the name “Obliteration” due to the belief that a country which sustains that level of violence for extended periods of time, is in very real danger of collapsing. Once again, Russia takes a prediction, or reasonable assumption, and kicks it aside like a brittle stick.

Russian homicide rates since Soviet Union collapse

Here is a look at the recent history of Russia. Homicide rates had been rising in the mid 80’s anyway, so by the time the Soviet Union collapsed, they already had a running start toward the infamously high murder rates that came along with their new take on capitalism. The two spikes in the 90’s are from the flair ups of The Chechen Wars. In recent years Russia is starting to get it’s murder rate under control, but it’s still a long way from the law and order days of the Soviet experiment.

Even if the per capita income level in Russia doesn’t increase by much in the next few years, I have a feeling their murder rate will fall. First of all, it is a relative anomaly that a physically cold nation like Russia even has a high murder rate… cold weather usually keeps social gatherings to a minimum, and less interaction leads to less confrontation. Second, there is a strong correlation between drunkenness and homicides in Russia; as of right now, it seems almost impossible for per capita alcohol consumption to rise any higher, and there are public works underway to minimize the vast alcoholism problem that Russia is dealing with. If these and other programs work to any degree, we should see a rise in Russian life expectancy, which will help to dillute the murders inevitably commited by the 18-34 male crowd. There should be a campaign “Under Ten {homicide rate per/100,000} By 2020!” or some such dorky phrase to keep Russians aware of their homicide levels, and hopefully take pride in a well reported drop.

The fall of czarist Russia is one of the most historically significant events of the 20th century. Much blame is placed on the loss of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. It was certainly a waste of money, and prestige… but in pure man power losses, it wasn’t nearly as catastrophic (2 years of level violence) as the wars to come.

On tenuous footing as is by 1914, the blood letting of the first World War made the Czar Nicholas’s removal all but certain.

violent war deaths russian 20th century